Mortgage rates dipped as the PCE inflation indicator rose 0.3%, meeting expectations, with the year-over-year rate at 2.6%, slightly high due to revised prior data. Powell’s press conference hinted at a dovish shift, noting weaker consumer spending, GDP, and minimal tariff impact on inflation. Private sector growth is nearly stagnant, signaling a likely rate cut at the Fed’s September 17 meeting, as they don’t meet in August. Markets may anticipate cuts earlier if July and August data weaken, potentially lowering rates before the meeting. Investors drive market reactions, and weak data could push for cuts. The federal funds rate affects short-term rates directly, while long-term rates, like mortgages, depend on market trends but have historically followed short-term rates. Weekly jobless claims rose slightly but remain unalarming. Tariff news had no market impact, unlike earlier this year when it could have dropped the S&P 500 by 3%. Tomorrow’s employment data is often unreliable, typically revised later. Weak jobs numbers would support rate cuts, aligning with the Fed’s full employment mandate. If jobs numbers fall below expectations, mortgage rates may improve, but strong BLS reports, which are common, increase our probability of having higher rates tomorrow. 

Mortgage rates remain steady as the Fed held the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, with nine members voting to maintain rates and two favoring a cut. The committee, usually 12 members, lacked Governor Adriana Kugler due to personal reasons—a concerning absence given the decision’s impact on millions. The Fed anticipates two rate cuts by year-end. President Trump pushes for a 3-percentage-point cut, which could slash national debt costs and boost the housing market—a key economic driver, as a strong housing market lifts related industries. In late 2017, with the federal funds rate at 1.25%-1.5%, mortgage rates were 3.9%-4.5%. At 3.9%, would you buy a home or refinance your mortgage? If you recently bought, would you refinance, and how would you use the savings? Large rate cuts could save a trillion in interest payments, so let’s hope for bold rate cuts by year-end.

Mortgage rates improved, though lenders remained cautious despite a steady bond market. Today’s data favored rates: job openings and quits dipped, and the Consumer Confidence labor differential hit a multi-year low, still at 2017 levels—a trend supporting lower rates. Tomorrow’s ADP employment, GDP, and Fed announcement could drive bigger rate improvements if favorable, but overnight volatility or strong data may push rates up. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 2.1% chance of a rate cut tomorrow, though Fed members’ push and tariff optimism may signal earlier cuts in the statement. A surprise cut would shock markets and boost rates significantly. Let’s hope the committee’s sentiment starts to shift toward cuts, as that would be a big first step.

Mortgage rates increased slightly as Trump secured a major trade deal with the EU, one of the world’s largest economies. In a speech, Trump claimed $17T in investments are flowing into the U.S., driven by deals like the $550B Japan agreement and the One Big Beautiful Bill. Trillions will change hands over the coming months and years. The GENIUS Act, signed into law, regulates the stablecoin market, and is projected to grow from $250B in mid-2025 to $1.6–$2T by 2030. By requiring stablecoins to be backed by U.S. Treasuries, it will drive T-bill demand, potentially lowering Treasury yields. Since mortgage rates follow 10-year Treasury notes, increased T-bill demand may slightly reduce long-term yields, easing mortgage rates. Stablecoins’ efficient payments will boost economic activity, supporting lower rates as long as inflation remains controlled. Ownership—of homes, tangible assets, or digital assets—is crucial for wealth-building in this transformative economy. Are you ready to own?

Mortgage rates held steady with minor fluctuations. Experts say bond markets crave stability and wince at Trump’s Fed pressure. A Powell resignation could spike rates briefly until a new chair is named, but the pain will be worth it for faster cuts. Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick estimates a 0.5% cut could save $180B in interest. Expect more Trump-led turbulence, with the next FOMC meeting after July 29-30 not until September 16-17—a long wait. Today’s durable goods orders fell 9.3%, with the CORE report at -0.7% vs. a 0.2% gain expected. This week’s jobs report, PCE data, and Fed announcement are pivotal. Tariffs may push rates up, but a weak jobs report could lower them. A surprise Fed rate cut would boost mortgage rates, though they trail bond market reactions, unlike instant drops in short-term rates (e.g., credit cards). Historically, mortgage rates fall post-Fed cuts. Let’s hope for a soft jobs report and a surprise cut.

Mortgage rates edged up as the S&P 500 soared past 6,350, up 31% since April 2025, marking one of the strongest three-month rallies ever. Expectations of continued record-breaking numbers will be fueled by the One Big Beautiful Bill and massive investments in America. Trump secured a stunning $550 billion trade deal with Japan, retaining 90% of profits for U.S. industries—a bold move. With the August 1 tariff deadline nearing, Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted at a possible extension for China. Expect tariff and trade deal headlines to dominate the next week, likely pushing rates higher. The NAR reported June 2025 home sales at 3.93 million, with a median price of $435,300 (up 2% year-over-year) and 4.7 months of inventory (up 0.7 months from June 2024). Mortgage applications rose slightly, but demand remains low. Inventory months indicate a buyer’s market: Oahu’s June 2025 single-family home supply was 3.7 months, compared to 1.2 months in June 2021. Buyers can negotiate seller credits now, unlike the competitive 2021 market. As rates drop, demand will rise, shifting to a seller’s market. Buying now in a buyer’s market lets you secure a lower price and refinance at better rates later.

Mortgage rates edged up as the S&P 500 soared past 6,350, up 31% since April 2025, marking one of the strongest three-month rallies ever. Expectations of continued record-breaking numbers will be fueled by the One Big Beautiful Bill and massive investments in America. Trump secured a stunning $550 billion trade deal with Japan, retaining 90% of profits for U.S. industries—a bold move. With the August 1 tariff deadline nearing, Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted at a possible extension for China. Expect tariff and trade deal headlines to dominate the next week, likely pushing rates higher. The NAR reported June 2025 home sales at 3.93 million, with a median price of $435,300 (up 2% year-over-year) and 4.7 months of inventory (up 0.7 months from June 2024). Mortgage applications rose slightly, but demand remains low. Inventory months indicate a buyer’s market: Oahu’s June 2025 single-family home supply was 3.7 months, compared to 1.2 months in June 2021. Buyers can negotiate seller credits now, unlike the competitive 2021 market. As rates drop, demand will rise, shifting to a seller’s market. Buying now in a buyer’s market lets you secure a lower price and refinance at better rates later.

Mortgage rates improved for the fourth straight time, back to July 7 levels. A fake Jerome Powell resignation letter briefly shook markets this morning, spiking S&P 500 fund ($SPY) volume and flipping it positive. Manipulation or a glimpse of a real resignation’s impact? Unclear, but lower rates could ignite stock market gains. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, after calling for a Fed review on CNBC, clarified on Fox Business that Powell doesn't need to resign, praising his service as his May 2026 term nears. Yet Trump keeps pushing for Powell’s exit. Bessent’s calm seems calculated to steady markets rattled by Trump’s storms, balancing bond market jitters with stock market upside. Rumors swirl Powell may have hired a crisis PR firm to shift sentiment. A Powell resignation would be like the Super Bowl’s head referee quitting in the fourth quarter—pure chaos with trillions at stake. Why push for it? The new referee gets picked by one of the teams, and we could slip in someone who tilts the game our way, boosting the odds of faster rate cuts and a big win. A big win could potentially mean saving $1 trillion in interest and sparking a real estate boom. Four FOMC meetings remain in 2025—July, September, October, and December—with Goldman Sachs eyeing 0.25% cuts in September and December. But new trade deals, like the one with Indonesia, raise chances of rate hikes in coming months.

Mortgage rates improved today amid a quiet economic news week, buoyed by positive investor sentiment in the bond market. Treasury Secretary Bessent, on CNBC, questioned the Federal Reserve’s performance, comparing it to the FAA and suggesting a review. Fed Chair Powell’s office hasn’t denied reports of his potential resignation, a point emphasized by FHFA Director William Pulte. CNBC’s Jim Cramer warned that Trump’s attacks on Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, could unsettle markets, though lower rates might outweigh market concerns. Fed’s Williams noted tariffs are driving inflation, expecting higher prices soon. The S&P 500 hit a record high, up over 30% since April 2025, marking one of the best three-month runs ever. DNI Tulsi Gabbard released documents alleging Obama’s involvement in a Russia hoax, which could spark volatility due to the influential figures implicated. Politicians are adept at creating distractions— are there more surprises looming? We are living in crazy times. Meanwhile, tech leaders now predict the AI revolution will kick off in Q1 or Q2 2026, faster than expected.

Mortgage rates dipped slightly, now about 0.125% higher than a year ago. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a voting FOMC member, strongly pushed for a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting, targeting a 3% policy rate—125-150 basis points below the current 4.25%-4.5%. Speaking in New York on Thursday, Waller argued tariff-driven inflation is temporary and emphasized rising job market risks, noting weak private sector job growth in June. He hinted at dissenting if rates hold steady, a view echoed by colleague Michelle Bowman. Waller, a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell in May 2026, told Bloomberg he’d accept the role if offered, though no contact has been made. Senator Rick Scott introduced legislation to audit the Fed, while Trump tweeted that high rates are stifling housing, especially for young buyers. A shift towards Waller’s stance is needed to ease rates further.

Mortgage rates improved after retail sales rose 0.6%, bouncing back from a revised -0.9% last month—stronger than expected, though softened by the revision. Weekly jobless claims fell to 221k, beating forecasts, which is positive but not ideal for rate cuts. Meanwhile, Congress members have referred Fed Chair Jerome Powell to the DOJ for perjury over a $2.5B project with a $700M overrun, amplifying Trump’s push to replace him with a rate-slashing ally. Powell’s July 30th press conference is one to watch, as a DOJ probe might force his resignation before his May 2026 term ends. A new Fed chair cutting rates in a short period of time will shake up the market, though Deutsche Bank warns firing Powell risks collapsing currency and bond markets. Never a dull moment with Trump, who oversaw record-low rates last time.

Mortgage rates are steady, and June’s Producer Price Index (PPI) came in lower than expected at 2.3% (vs. 2.5% forecast), with core PPI at 2.6% (vs. 2.7%) and monthly inflation flat at 0.0% (vs. 0.2%). This cooling producer inflation counters rumors of price hikes, easing uncertainty and pressuring the Fed to cut rates. Speculation about Trump firing Fed Chair Powell is heating up, with Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and others fueling the chatter, and The New York Times reporting a drafted letter to oust him. If Trump replaces Powell with an ally who cuts rates by 3%, it could be a game-changer for credit card users, borrowers, and especially home buyers and owners—a historic Fed shakeup since 1913. However, Fed’s Bostic says he’s not ready to cut rates yet. Meanwhile, Chinese buyers dropped $14B cash on U.S. homes (April 2024–March 2025), an 82.6% jump, raising eyebrows on Capitol Hill. Regardless, strong job growth fuels housing demand, and NAR’s Dr. Lawrence Yun forecasts existing home sales up 3% in 2025 and 14% in 2026, with job gains of 1.6M in 2025 and 2M in 2026, and mortgage rates dropping from 6.7% to 6%. This signals rising demand and lower rates ahead—get ready to capitalize!

Mortgage rates ticked up slightly today after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% monthly hitting expectations, pushing annual inflation from 2.4% to 2.7%. Housing, medical care, and professional services drove the increase, though core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose a modest 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%. Tariffs impacted some goods but less than feared, a small win as the Fed cites tariff-driven inflation for delaying rate cuts. Tomorrow’s Producer Price Index (PPI), tracking domestic producers’ selling prices, could further shape rate expectations. Let’s hope it shows tame inflation for another win. President Trump again pressed Fed Chair Powell, urging a 3-point rate cut, claiming it could save $1 trillion annually in debt interest. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted the FOMC doesn’t always follow the Chair’s lead. Unverified reports from the FHFA Director suggest Powell may consider resigning amid scrutiny over a $700 million overrun on the Fed’s headquarters renovation. Powell asked the Fed’s inspector general to investigate, due to White House pressure. Meanwhile, Home Depot founder Ken Langone, once a Trump critic, now says, “I’ve never been more excited about America’s future." Everyone should be excited with everything in motion to help fuel economic growth, potentially expanding opportunities. This could mean more jobs, higher wages, and better public services like infrastructure and healthcare, boosting quality of life. Even with AI job concerns, America remains the land of opportunity. The Feds may not cut their rates by July 30, but interest rates are trending down and at some point they will cut rates, sparking spending and demand. Buying a home now and refinancing later—“marry the house, date the rate”—still remains solid advice. Let’s hope for a tame PPI tomorrow as this could help improve rates!

Mortgage rates ticked up today, reflecting market jitters ahead of tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The Fed has pinned delayed rate cuts on tariff-driven inflation, but past predictions of price spikes from Trump’s tariffs have missed the mark. Markets expect core inflation to rise from 0.1% to 0.3% monthly. A lower reading (0.2% or less) could boost hopes for a July 30 rate cut, easing homeowner borrowing costs. A higher reading (0.4% or more) will push rates up further. Traders will scrutinize tariff-driven categories like apparel or electronics—rental or healthcare spikes alone won’t sway markets much. If the CPI shows tame inflation, the Fed will face additional pressure to admit tariffs aren’t driving prices, increasing rate cut odds. However, businesses citing tariff costs could keep rates elevated if inflation spikes. Market competition helps limit price hikes—capitalism at work! Rates are more likely to rise than fall, but it’s a close call. No confirmed signs of Fed Chair Powell resigning, though he’s reportedly asked the Fed’s inspector general to probe a costly headquarters renovation, due to White House pressure. Trump again urged a 1% Fed rate today, which would drastically slash borrowing costs and spark growth. Let’s hope tomorrow’s CPI supports a rate cut.  In other news, President Trump announced plans to send U.S.-made weapons, funded by Europe, to Ukraine, pressuring Russia for a peace deal within 50 days—or face 100% tariffs. This bold strategy adds market uncertainty. Escalation could disrupt markets, while peace might stabilize them. Let’s hope for a tame CPI and progress toward peace—both would ease rates. Stay tuned!

Mortgage rates ticked up slightly today, amid mixed news. The big headline: the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency Chairman claims Fed Chair Jerome Powell is considering resignation, boosting hopes for rate cuts. Data suggests the Fed should cut rates now, but Powell cites tariff-driven inflation fears, despite little evidence of price spikes. As Barry Habib noted today, Powell seems to be forward-looking to tariffs, but not forward-looking to actual data. Let’s hope a low CPI report on Tuesday, July 15, 2025, pushes the Fed toward a July 30 cut. Powell’s influence sways the 12-member FOMC, and a new chair like Scott Bessent could accelerate cuts, lowering short-term rates for credit cards, auto loans, and adjustable-rate loans, which track the prime rate. Fixed mortgage rates, tied to Treasury yields, also tend to drop when the Fed signals easier policy, as seen since the 1960s. Lower rates would ease borrowing costs for all! 

In huge news, the U.S. reported a $26 billion budget surplus in June 2025—the first in 20 years—driven by tariff revenue. However, the national debt rose $410 billion since the July 4 debt ceiling increase. President Trump bets economic growth, fueled by AI, will erase deficits. Experts, including Elon Musk at xAI’s Grok 4 announcement, predict AI could expand the economy 1,000-fold by boosting productivity—think of workers shifting from low-value tasks to higher-value production, like filling papers to simply selling strawberries at a farmers’ market. This could drive trillions in economic activity. Recent data reveals homeowners’ median net worth exceeds $250,000, 30-40 times renters’ $6,000-$8,000. Don’t miss out on building wealth—reply to this email for my free assessment to see how homeownership can boost your financial future!

Mortgage rates edged up slightly today, but dovish Federal Reserve members helped limit the rise by signaling openness to rate cuts sooner rather than later. Some Fed officials expect tariff-driven inflation to appear in next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due Tuesday, July 15, 2025, yet their repeated predictions of tariff-related price spikes have so far been off the mark. If the CPI shows low or declining inflation again, the Fed may need to admit Trump’s trade policies aren’t fueling inflation, increasing pressure for a cut sooner rather than later. President Trump’s budget chief, Russ Vought, criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, accusing him of mismanaging the Fed and misleading Congress about a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation—$700 million over budget, with costs double that of typical historic federal buildings. Vought’s X post called it “ostentatious,” noting the Fed’s deficit since FY23. The White House continues to press Powell, who can’t be fired without cause, like misconduct, until his term ends in May 2026. A rate cut could save the U.S. billions in debt interest, as the $33 trillion national debt rolls over with new, lower-yield Treasuries, reducing borrowing costs for homeowners too. A weak CPI will boost our odds of a rate cut and continue to fuel claims of political bias if the Fed delays. Lower federal funds rates ease bank borrowing costs, benefiting everyone. Tuesday’s CPI report is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for rates, and it’s encouraging that Trump’s tariff deadlines and letters have had little market impact so far. Let’s hope this stability holds!

Mortgage rates improved today, driven by a strong 10-year Treasury bond auction that saw robust buyer demand, with investors jumping in early and often. This healthy bond market is a welcome shift from recent chaos, boosting confidence. However, issuing more bonds to address our debt could strain the market if demand falters, so let’s hope this stability holds. President Trump ramped up pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, posting on Truth Social: “Our Fed Rate is AT LEAST 3 points too high… costing the U.S. $360B per point, PER YEAR… No Inflation, COMPANIES POURING IN… LOWER THE RATE!!!” Rumors of Powell’s resignation swirled early this morning, which had me jump for joy—but soon realized you can't believe everything online. Trump’s unprecedented push for a 3% rate cut benefits everyone, though he can’t fire Powell, whose term runs to May 2026. A July 30 rate cut (24.8% probability) could save the U.S. billions in debt interest and reduce mortgage costs. Remarkably, the Kalshi app shows 2025 recession odds at a new low of 19%, down from widespread fears, signaling a stronger bond market. The Big Beautiful Bill will fuel tremendous economic activity, with trillions changing hands. You need to start thinking how you could get some of that money. This means opportunity: for instance Oahu homes here appreciate 4-5% annually, building equity means cash you can tap into later. Discover how the Big Beautiful Bill delivers major savings for homeowners here! Packed with financial perks, this bill can boost your wealth. Take advantage of my free assessment to see your benefits—just reply to get started!

Mortgage rates ticked up today due to President Trump’s aggressive tariff policy, including a proposed 50% tariff on copper and 200% on pharmaceutical imports, unsettling traders. As I’ve noted, trade agreements with major economies are crucial for market certainty. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced yesterday that several trade deals could be revealed within 48 hours—let’s hope they involve our largest partners, to stabilize markets. Trump intensified pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, accused by some of misleading Congress, a potential crime. When asked, Trump called for Powell’s immediate resignation, saying, “We need someone to lower interest rates." Powell can’t be fired without cause, like misconduct, and his term runs until May 2026. Still, Trump’s push for cuts could sway the Fed, as lower rates might save the U.S. up to $900 billion annually in debt interest, plus reduce borrowing costs for you the homeowner. A July 30 rate cut seems feasible without harm, though the full FOMC votes, not just Powell. The “Big Beautiful Bill,” recently passed, makes key homeowner tax benefits permanent, previously set to expire in 2025. I’m preparing a detailed breakdown of these savings—stay tuned! Homeowners, hope for trade deals, but brace for tariff-driven volatility.

Mortgage rates edged up today as President Trump sent tariff letters to over 100 countries that failed to secure trade deals, signaling new tariff rates. Japan and South Korea face a 25% tariff, with Trump warning Japan of higher tariffs if they retaliate. Markets fear a repeat of April’s “Liberation Day” chaos, when tariff hikes disrupted rates. The S&P 500, despite hitting a record high of 625.34 last week, added significant value since April’s low, with Nvidia alone gaining $1.6 trillion in market value. Investors, previously holding cash, have poured back into stocks, driving the Greed Index to 77. The July 9 trade deadline looms, with Trump threatening set tariffs if deals aren’t reached, though an August 1 extension gives countries another go at it. A “Liberation Day part 2” could spike rates further and a “part 3” in August could hurt to. This week could be volatile—retaliatory tariffs from countries like Japan could worsen rates. Let’s hope for trade breakthroughs to stabilize markets and ease rates—brace for a possible wild ride!

Mortgage rates increased today after a wild morning with the “Big Beautiful Bill” passing the House and the BLS jobs report exceeding expectations. The BLS reported 147,000 new jobs in June (vs. 111,000 expected) and unemployment dropped to 4.1% (vs. 4.3% forecast), boosting the S&P 500 to an all-time high. However, 63,000 of these jobs were in state-level education—odd for June’s school year-end. The ADP report, more accurate for private-sector hiring, showed a loss of 33,000 jobs from the largest private employer, contrasting BLS’s 74,000 private job gain, raising doubts about BLS reliability. This strong BLS data, favored by Federal Reserve voters, dims hopes of a July 30 rate cut. Fed President Raphael Bostic cited uncertainty, resisting policy shifts. President Trump again called for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s resignation to push for lower rates to refinance U.S. debt, a move that would save billions. A curious BLS stat: native-born workers gained 830,000 jobs, while foreign-born workers lost 348,000. 

The “Big Beautiful Bill,” now headed to Trump’s desk for a July 4 signing, includes $2 trillion in spending cuts, full border wall and immigration funding, no taxes on tips, overtime, or Social Security, and the “Golden Dome” defense system. Critics warn it adds trillions to the deficit, but supporters claim economic growth will offset this, potentially creating a surplus. No tax on tips and overtime is just a few things in this bill that will boost spending, driving stock market growth. 

Think about this: the bill’s benefits put more money in your pocket, and while rates are easing slowly, fading tariff fears could prompt a Fed rate cut, making borrowing cheaper. This will fuel even more stock market growth and home demand, raising prices in low-inventory states. A golden age or deficit surge? Time will tell. Here’s my friendly advice: homeownership builds wealth—homeowners have a 40% higher net worth than renters—so consider buying or holding property to ride this wave.

Mortgage rates ticked up slightly today as the House nears a critical vote on the “Big Beautiful Bill,” a massive tax and spending package. If it fails, rates could ease tomorrow as investors may flock to bonds for safety. Drama unfolded as some Republican House members missed the procedural vote due to travel issues, and a fourth and now a fifth “no” vote emerged, threatening passage with only three defections affordable. House Speaker Mike Johnson vows to keep the vote open to flip holdouts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell admitted tariffs blocked rate cuts this year, confirming our hopes for lower rates to refinance U.S. debt. Today’s ADP jobs report showed weak private-sector hiring, typically rate-friendly, but investors are awaiting tomorrow’s BLS jobs report, often revised and closely watched by the Fed. A weak BLS report could boost July 30 rate cut odds. If the bill fails, expect a red stock market open and a potential bond market surge, lowering rates. Let’s hope for a bill stumble and soft jobs data to drive rates down—stay tuned for tomorrow’s chaos!

Mortgage rates held steady today, with some slightly lower, as job openings data showed stabilization but failed to significantly sway markets. Investors appear focused on the labor market, particularly today’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), rather than other economic signals. The “Big Beautiful Bill,” a major spending and tax package, enjoys market favor, but its failure to pass the House could spark volatility, potentially driving investors to the safety of bonds and affecting our rates. President Trump’s administration has shifted from pursuing large trade deals to securing smaller, faster agreements before July 9, when he plans to reimpose stringent tariffs. Trump also announced Israel’s agreement to a 60-day Gaza ceasefire, a potential fourth peace deal in 90 days if finalized, bolstering Middle East stability. Rumors swirl that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell before his May 2026 term ends, aiming to cut the federal funds rate to refinance U.S. debt at lower rates. Lower rates would ease borrowing costs for everyone. This week’s jobs report could sway rate cut odds, but it looks like the passage of the bill will make the most noise. 

Mortgage rates improved slightly today. President Trump continued to apply pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, which could ease the burden of refinancing U.S. debt. Lowering rates from, say, 4% to 3% saves billions in interest payments, a smart move Trump’s been advocating. The Fed, however, remains cautious, citing potential tariff-driven inflation. While tariffs worry policymakers, their price impact is modest so far, and gas prices at $3.18—a 2021 low—signal relief. Cheaper borrowing means more savings for everyone, so let’s root for lower rates. The “Big Beautiful Bill,” a major spending and tax package, is nearing Senate passage by Friday, boosting markets despite concerns. Elon Musk opposes it, vowing to fund campaigns against debt-reduction hypocrites in Congress and threatening to form an “American Party” if it passes, challenging the two-party system. This week’s jobs report and trade deadlines loom large. A weak labor market could push the July 30 Fed rate cut odds, but successful trade deals with major economies might stabilize markets, keeping rates steady. Too much uncertainty, like missed trade deadlines, could spike rates, while excessive confidence might deter bond market flows. A balanced “sky is falling” sentiment—without panic—could drive rates lower. Lets, hope for soft jobs data to boost cut chances!

Mortgage rates held steady today, unchanged from yesterday, as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge, rose 0.1% monthly, with an annual rate of 2.3%. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% monthly and 2.7% annually, slightly above estimates of 0.1% and 2.6%. Consumer spending dipped 0.1%, and personal income fell 0.4%, signaling economic softening. Tariff-related price increases are modest so far, a relief, but next month’s data will be critical for a potential July 30 Fed rate cut. Trade tensions flared as Canada’s new digital services tax prompted President Trump to halt U.S. trade talks, with a possible response by Monday if Canada stands firm. Unconfirmed reports suggest Iran’s military may be collaborating with the U.S. for regime change, with factions clashing and recent explosions in Tehran. If true, a non-terrorist-supporting regime could stabilize the Middle East and markets. Next week’s employment data could sway markets; higher unemployment may boost rate cut odds. Let’s hope for soft data, Canada’s tax reversal, and Iran stability to drive rates lower. Have a great weekend!

Mortgage rates dipped slightly, now about 0.125% higher than a year ago. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a voting FOMC member, strongly pushed for a rate cut at the July 29-30 meeting, targeting a 3% policy rate—125-150 basis points below the current 4.25%-4.5%. Speaking in New York on Thursday, Waller argued tariff-driven inflation is temporary and emphasized rising job market risks, noting weak private sector job growth in June. He hinted at dissenting if rates hold steady, a view echoed by colleague Michelle Bowman. Waller, a potential successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell in May 2026, told Bloomberg he’d accept the role if offered, though no contact has been made. Senator Rick Scott introduced legislation to audit the Fed, while Trump tweeted that high rates are stifling housing, especially for young buyers. A shift towards Waller’s stance is needed to ease rates further.

Mortgage rates improved today, hitting the lowest level since May 7, and nearing March’s rates with a bit more decline. This dip stems from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s slightly softer tone since last week’s press conference, raising hopes for an earlier rate cut. Powell noted that tariff impacts may appear in June’s data, due in July, but if inflation remains low, he signaled openness to cutting rates at the July 30 meeting. Today’s Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index also bolstered rates, with its labor differential—measuring perceptions of job availability—showing the weakest labor market since the 2020 COVID lockdowns. The Fed closely monitors labor conditions, and continued weakness, paired with low inflation, should pave the way for a July rate cut. Without drama, such as geopolitical shocks or tariff spikes, a cut is likely; otherwise, delays may fuel claims of political influence on the Fed. Let’s hope for no surprises and a July cut to drive rates lower—stay tuned for inflation updates!

The Israel-Iran war has ended or is nearing its close, a major win with minimal market disruption. Despite fears over oil and the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of global oil trade flows, markets stayed calm, confident this wasn’t World War III. Brent crude, which briefly dipped at the conflict’s peak, stabilized, reflecting uninterrupted oil supply. Our strikes likely crippled Iran’s nuclear facilities, delaying or eliminating their nuclear weapon capabilities—a huge success credited to President Trump. Mortgage rates dipped slightly, mirroring the conflict’s modest impact, as rates hadn’t risen much either. Attention now shifts to tariffs and trade, but concerns are fading, with no significant price spikes. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated Friday that the central bank could cut rates as early as July, dismissing tariff-driven inflation risks, urging policymakers to lower rates. Trump’s renegotiated trade deals and resolution of Iran’s nuclear threat have kept inflation in check, a remarkable feat in just 154 days of being in office. The only lingering worry is the U.S. debt burden. Markets see a 20.7% chance of a Fed rate cut on July 30, 2025, but an 82.7% chance in September, giving the Fed two months to confirm low inflation. Cross your fingers for a July cut to accelerate falling rates—stay tuned for more updates.

Mortgage rates remained stable today, with some slightly lower, after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, as expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced plans for two rate cuts in 2025, but seven of the 19 voting members—up from four last meeting—oppose cuts this year, signaling caution. Tariff concerns have eased, a relief, though risks linger as the Fed raised its inflation forecast to 3% and cut GDP growth projections from 1.7% to 1.4%. It’s frustrating, but encouraging that tariff-driven inflation fears are fading. Geopolitical tensions escalated. Trump posted on Truth Social, demanding Iran’s surrender within 24 hours, jokingly threatening to “drop Chris Christie on them.” Iran’s refusal suggests intensified U.S. or Israeli strikes may be imminent. Iran unveiled a new ballistic missile as their surprise, capable of reaching Europe in under five minutes—faster than the 11 minutes for prior missiles targeting Israel—raising fears of nuclear warhead potential. While market chaos often paves the way for lower rates by driving investors to bonds, excessive uncertainty, especially in the bond market, could backfire. If Iran’s conflict escalates, oil price spikes would be the cause for rates to increase. No update tomorrow with the markets closed for Juneteenth.

Mortgage rates dipped slightly today as retail sales data came in weaker than expected, signaling a slowdown. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve’s announcement and press conference tomorrow, where every word will be scrutinized for hints of future rate cuts, though none are expected soon. On Truth Social, Trump claimed the U.S. knows the hiding place of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, demanding “unconditional surrender” and warning his patience is thinning. Unconfirmed reports swirl of Iranian military defectors backing Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi for a democratic transition, alongside a wild claim that former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was assassinated today. Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly warned Khamenei that his regime risks collapse. Trump faces a critical decision: deploy U.S. bunker-buster bombs in a potential strike on Iran’s Fordow nuclear site, risking Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases, or continue to seek a deal. Iran issued a vague threat of a “surprising” attack tonight to be remembered for centuries, escalating tensions. Former CIA targeter Sarah Adams, leveraging her private network distrustful of the U.S. government post-Afghanistan withdrawal, has warned for years that Iran-backed Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups have operatives embedded in U.S. cities, planning a large-scale, multi-city attack akin to Israel’s October 7, 2023. Such an attack could roil markets. At this moment in time the best thing to happen is that the Iranian regime surrenders and that the new government establishes a favorable relationship with us.

Mortgage rates have held steady since Friday, with conventional loans slightly up, while most rates edged lower. The Israel-Iran war, initially poised for a prolonged conflict, shifted as Israel gained air superiority, targeting Iran’s mobile ballistic missile launch pads. Trump confirmed Iran’s willingness to negotiate a ceasefire, contingent on the U.S. avoiding direct involvement in Israeli strikes, but I believe talks will stall until Iran’s nuclear capabilities are fully dismantled. Brent crude, which climbed over the weekend, dropped to $69.70 today as ceasefire hopes emerged, easing inflation fears. Iran’s main nuclear site, buried 1.5 miles underground at Fordo, is only vulnerable to U.S. bunker-buster bombs, raising the stakes of potential American involvement—a move that could escalate the war, spike oil prices, and push rates higher. Trump, pushing for a nuclear deal, posted on Truth Social that Iran should have signed an agreement and urged Tehran residents to evacuate, signaling no end to strikes until Iran’s nuclear program is neutralized. Iran’s key oil and gas facilities are damaged or offline, tightening supply. If the U.S. joins the conflict, oil prices could spike, driving rates up; a ceasefire could stabilize markets, keeping rates flat. Watch Trump’s next moves, but with a warning like that means the bombing campaigns will only grow larger.

Mortgage rates ticked up slightly today as the Israel-Iran war introduced market uncertainty. Typically, wars drive investors to sell stocks and seek safety in bonds, lowering yields, but this conflict has spiked oil prices, complicating dynamics. Iran, a top-10 oil producer, influences the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of global oil trade—about 20 million barrels daily—passes through its territorial waters, narrowing to 12 nautical miles at the strait’s tightest point. Brent crude surged from $64.58 per barrel on June 6 to $74.81 today, countering efforts to curb inflation and threatening higher rates. Historical precedent, like the Gulf War (1990-1991) when oil jumped from $15 to $41 per barrel, suggests prolonged conflict could push prices further, fueling uncertainty. Trade agreements, like the recent U.S.-China deal, usually boost confidence and rates, but the war’s oil shock may mute their impact, leaving investors hesitant. If the conflict disrupts the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil will only increase, intensifying inflationary pressures. The war’s duration and what is done in the Strait will dictate trends for now. Stay tuned for updates!

Mortgage rates eased today as wholesale inflation via the PPI came in lower than expected, reinforcing yesterday’s CPI rally at 0.1%, but surging weekly jobless claims stole the spotlight. Higher-than-expected claims along with lower inflation sparked buzz about a larger Federal Reserve rate cut by year-end, though next week’s meeting is unlikely to deliver one. Despite warnings from Janet Yellen of a potential 3% inflation spike due to tariffs, recent data—CPI and PPI—continue to defy expectations of rising prices. Are economists misjudging inflation? Persistent low readings could make their predictions look increasingly political. Trump suggested refinancing U.S. debt at lower rates to save up to $300 billion in interest, a move that hinges on Fed cuts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted more trade deals soon, a welcome step to reduce economic uncertainty. Geopolitical risks are escalating. Israel just bombed Iran's enrichment facility and targeted leading scientists involved in the nuclear program. The Saudi Crown Prince warned today that an Iranian nuclear weapon would trigger a Middle East arms race, with Saudi Arabia seeking its own nukes. This will disrupt oil markets, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, spiking prices and countering efforts to lower inflation, which may delay Fed rate cuts. Brace for volatility—oil prices and trade agreements could be the cause of higher rates in the days ahead!

Mortgage rates eased today as May’s CPI inflation came in at 0.1%, below the expected 0.2%, countering predictions of tariff-driven price surges. This gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility to cut rates, as tariff-related inflation fears have not materialized. The U.S. and China reached a tentative trade agreement, awaiting approval from Presidents Trump and Xi, with a 55% U.S. tariff on China and a 10% tariff on the U.S. If finalized, this deal could boost investor confidence and economic growth, potentially nudging rates higher. Tomorrow’s PPI inflation report and weekly jobless claims will be pivotal. Trump’s policies are taming inflation, but rising Middle East tensions may overshadow these gains. X posts indicate Israel is “fully ready” for an Iran operation, with Americans evacuating the region amid fears of Iranian retaliation on U.S. sites. The sixth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks is likely stalled, and Trump’s vague comment—“You’ll have to see”—heightens uncertainty. Weeks ago, Trump reportedly delayed Israel’s Iran strikes, but risks are escalating. A conflict could disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil route, driving up oil prices. Can Trump secure an Iran deal this weekend, or are negotiations over? Global tensions are high, but let’s hope producer inflation stays low and Trump can again delay Israel’s actions.

Mortgage rates eased today with minimal economic data released, setting the stage for tomorrow’s critical Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Trump’s policies have tamed inflation, but his tariffs continue to stir market unease. As of 6 a.m. HST, Howard Lutnick reported progress in the second day of U.S.-China trade talks in London, fueling hopes for a deal. The World Bank slashed its global growth forecast to 2.3% on Tuesday, the slowest since 2008 outside recessions, blaming trade disruptions—U.S. tariffs, as the world’s top consumer, amplify this uncertainty. Larry McDonald, founder of “The Bear Traps Report” and CNBC contributor, echoed Jamie Dimon’s concerns about the a bond market panic. McDonald highlighted institutional fears over the government’s plan to issue around $1.5 trillion new bonds starting from September 1st thru February, up as much as $600 billion from last year. Who will absorb this $600 billion debt surge? Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has recently unlocked $250 billion in bank capital to help, but it’s unclear when banks will deploy it. A stressed bond market could drive rates up. With trade tensions, bond market worries, and CPI on the horizon, markets are jittery. Swift trade deals are key to reducing volatility—let’s tackle one step at a time and watch CPI closely!

Mortgage rates climbed today after news of U.S.-China trade talks in London. Reports suggest the discussions are progressing, with hopes of a potential deal, though concerns persist about China’s commitment to any agreement. Trade deals with major economies like China boost market confidence, pushing interest rates higher. This week’s major inflation reports—CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Thursday—are expected to show subdued figures, which could help stabilize rates. Trade continues to influence markets, but its full impact is uncertain—more clarity may emerge soon. Violent protests in Los Angeles have captured media attention, diverting focus from economic developments. President Trump outlined a pilot program in the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” providing $1,000 for U.S. citizens born from January 1, 2024, to January 1, 2029, deposited into a tax-deferred index fund managed by the child’s guardians, with options to contribute up to $5,000 annually. With trade talks, inflation data, protests, and new policies in play, markets face a volatile week.

Mortgage rates climbed today after the BLS jobs report showed 139,000 new jobs in May, topping the 125,000 forecast. Unfortunately, BLS often inflates initial figures, only to revise them down later—experts are calling out its unreliability. April’s jobs were cut by 30,000, and March was revised down a second time by 65,000, costing us better rates. It’s frustrating that markets treat these numbers as fact despite widespread skepticism. Real average hourly earnings rose nearly 4% year-over-year, boosting incomes. Unemployment held at 4.2%, signaling employment is fine—a win for the Fed, giving them another excuse to delay rate cuts. Next week brings the critical CPI inflation report, a key driver for rates. Inflation must keep trending down to ease rates, but it hinges on market expectations and where CPI lands relative to forecasts. Everyone should be annoyed by BLS revisions—accurate data could’ve kept rates lower. Let’s hope for no more surprises and a favorable CPI. Stay tuned for this pivotal data!

Mortgage rates began the day slightly lower but reversed, ending slightly higher. Stocks surged after news of a Trump-Xi phone call but later fell without clear catalysts. The European Central Bank cut its rate by 0.25%, drawing global focus. April’s trade deficit plummeted to half of March’s level due to sharply reduced imports, raising economic concerns. Weekly jobless claims hit an eight-month high but remain near historic lows, suggesting firms are retaining workers amid trade tensions. Analysts note companies are weathering the trade wars. A viral X video showed a woman at a government contractor onboarding two ex-GSA employees who took DOGE incentives, retired early, then rejoined to fill their old roles. Elon Musk commented, “Not Good,” and now it seems a rift with Trump has developed over the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which reportedly balloons the deficit. Tesla’s stock dropped, reflecting market unease about the rift. DOGE aimed for government cuts, but workarounds like shifting to contractors and this bill’s deficit impact worry analysts. As JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon warned, mounting U.S. debt risks bond market panic. A healthy bond market is crucial for lower rates—tomorrow’s jobs report could sway things. Higher unemployment would help rates, so we’re cautiously watching. Stay tuned for this critical data!

Mortgage rates eased today as weaker-than-expected economic reports signaled a slowdown. May’s private sector hiring added just 37,000 jobs, far below the 115,000 forecast and the lowest in over two years. The ISM Services Index, tracking non-manufacturing activity, fell to 49.9% from 51.6%, indicating contraction below the 50 threshold. Housing demand weakened, with MBA mortgage applications down 3.9% weekly, hitting a five-week low. Tariff headlines, once market movers, are losing steam—stocks rose despite Trump calling China “extremely hard to deal with” in a post, helping to confirm investors no longer fear tariff threats. This is great news for keeping rates in check! The U.S. Senate unanimously passed Trump’s “No Tax On Tips Act” (100-0), exempting qualified tips from federal income tax with a 100% above-the-line deduction, up to $25,000 annually for workers earning under $160,000. Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warned that ballooning U.S. debt could crack the bond market, citing trillions in post-COVID borrowing. With interest payments eating 25% of government revenue, unchecked deficits risk crowding out Social Security, Medicare, and defense. Goldman Sachs’ president echoed that debt concerns now outweigh tariff risks. A shaky bond market hurts rates—confidence drives buyer demand, but Japan’s rising yields and U.S. debt fears are diverting investors. Still, Dimon’s calm—“I’m not gonna panic… we’ll be fine”—signals resilience. A brief panic might even create opportunities, but we need a stable bond market for rates to keep improving. Stay tuned for more economic data and a huge jobs report on Friday.

Today’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) sent mixed signals: job openings rose, pushing rates up, but fewer people quit their jobs, supporting lower rates. Mortgage rates held steady with some slightly higher. Fed voter Goolsbee warned tariffs could spike prices within a month, while Atlanta Fed President Bostic said he’s in no hurry to cut rates, wanting “a lot” more inflation progress despite recent gains. Inflation’s easing, but the Fed won’t budge until forced, balancing price stability and maximum employment—more employment data drops this week. Markets are itching for a rate cut, but the Fed’s holding firm. On a global note, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would bring “devastating consequences” for the Indo-Pacific, calling the threat “real and possibly imminent.” A Taiwan conflict would disrupt TSMC’s chip production, spiking inflation and rates by clogging supply chains for cars, phones, laptops, and just every electronic needing one. I’ve flagged this risk for years—Taiwan’s a prize for President Xi. Expert Gordon Chang suggests China might stir trouble elsewhere first, not directly invade. With China grappling with unemployment and financial woes, let’s hope tensions cool. A Taiwan crisis would be disastrous for rates—stay tuned for more jobs data and let’s hope that phone call between Trump and Xi happens!

Mortgage rates edged up today as Manufacturing ISM data, a gauge of factory health, came in slightly weaker than expected, helping further bond market strain. It’s unclear what caused today’s bond weakness, but it could be because of steel and aluminum tariff headlines. Trump and China’s President Xi are set to talk this week, with hopes of positive trade news that could help rates. Last week’s tariff headlines barely moved markets, raising questions: have tariffs lost their shock value? Meanwhile, Japan’s bond market is struggling, with rising yields making U.S. bonds less appealing. Japan, a major buyer of U.S. debt, now favors its own bonds as the yen strengthens, reducing demand for ours. Fewer buyers spell trouble—bond prices drop when demand falls, pushing rates up. We can’t afford to lose these investors! On the housing front, Redfin reports 34% more sellers than buyers, the widest gap since they started to collect it in 2013, with $698 billion in homes for sale, up 20.3% from last year—a record high. Buyers have unprecedented leverage to negotiate deals. In global news, Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Istanbul could yield a ceasefire, a disinflationary move that may lower rates. Egg prices have plummeted 61% since Trump’s inauguration, and his opening of 23 million Alaskan acres for drilling will continue to curb inflation. Strong GDP revisions from experts and now Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow signal economic growth, reducing recession odds. Historically, rates drop in recessions, so this could keep rates elevated. It’s jobs report week, with Friday’s data, the most crucial—a weaker labor market could lower rates, so we’re cautiously hoping for soft numbers. New homeowners can snag great deals with homes lingering on the market, as my buyers are consistently securing seller credits for closing costs and temporary rate buydowns.